Ocean Newsletter

No.524 June 5, 2022

  • The Future of the Arctic Ocean as Seen through Sea Ice Changes ENOMOTO Hiroyuki
    Vice Director-General, National Institute of Polar Research / Vice-President, International Arctic Science Committee (IASC)
  • Developments in UNEA’s Discussions on the Marine Plastic Problem Zhu Mengyao
    Research Fellow, Ocean Policy Research Institute, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
  • Tackling Trash Beaches IWATA Kouji
    Representative Director, E.C Oceans / AEPW Prize Winner, UMIGOMI Zero Award 2021

The Future of the Arctic Ocean as Seen through Sea Ice Changes

[KEYWORDS] international scientific cooperation / intensive observations / long-term environmental monitoring
ENOMOTO Hiroyuki
Vice Director-General, National Institute of Polar Research / Vice-President, International Arctic Science Committee (IASC)

The rate of Arctic sea ice decline is accelerating, and ice extent remains small. It’s predicted that in the future, Arctic sea ice will practically disappear during the summer months. Observations are actively being conducted to survey this declining Arctic sea ice and predict future changes. However, there is an unknown region in the central Arctic Ocean due to historically limited winter observations, and action is being taken to address this limitation through international cooperation. This article covers various related initiatives and discussions by researchers in the current political situation.

Rapid Changes in Arctic Sea Ice

Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is continually decreasing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), released in 2021, states that the Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest level since the 1850s (Figure 1), and that the decline seen in recent years is unprecedented even going back 1,000 years. Under all future scenarios where CO2 emissions are not suppressed to low levels, experts predict that the Arctic Ocean is likely to be practically sea ice-free in September by about 2050 (Figure 2).
In areas off the coast of Alaska and Russia's Arctic Ocean coastline, sea ice reduction is now allowing vessels to expand their navigable areas and navigable periods. Regardless, the dynamics of the remaining offshore sea ice vary significantly from year to year, requiring further understanding.
The Arctic Council (AC) is made up of eight Arctic states with territories in the Arctic with permanent participation by indigenous groups. Six Working Groups of the AC have been working to understand environmental changes in the region and to make recommendations on how to address them. Japan1 has also sent a representative to the Working Group. The AC's Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) recently produced a climate change report (a Japanese translation of the summary is also available2). As the report notes, the physical factors involved in the Arctic continue to change rapidly; key indicators such as temperature, precipitation, snow cover, sea-ice thickness and extent, and thawing permafrost are showing rapid changes over widespread areas. One important update is that the increase in Arctic annual mean surface temperature between 1971 and 2019 was three times higher than the increase in the global average during the same period. This is higher than reported in previous AMAP assessments. As an aside, the AC will be chaired by Russia for two years, from 2021 to May 2023, meaning it is currently inactive due to the present circumstances.

■Fig. 1 The white-colored area depicts the smallest sea ice coverage in the history of satellite observations (September 2012); solid white lines show the average for the same period in the 1980s. The Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) consists of the international waters. The observation activities of R/V MIRAI, MOSAiC, and NABOS in the Arctic Ocean are shown. Note that in winter, the Arctic Ocean is almost entirely frozen over.
(Courtesy of JAXA, NIPR, ADS)

Observational Approaches to the Arctic Ocean

(1) Wide-area snapshot
Synoptic Arctic Survey (SAS) was planned for 2020/2021 to address the lack of broad observational data for the entire Arctic Ocean. In response, the countries observing the Arctic Ocean coordinated their vessels' observation activity areas and observation periods. Although many countries abandoned their observations due to the countermeasures against the spread of COVID-19, the Japanese oceanographic research vessel MIRAI carried out its observations while taking every possible measure.
(2) Observations of year-round changes in the unknown Central Arctic Ocean (CAO)
There is an observational gap in the CAO. In many areas of the Arctic Ocean, observation ships are active in the summer, but little observation is conducted over the winter. The Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was conducted from 2019 to 2020 to fill in these gaps. Researchers from around the world, including Japan, boarded a German research icebreaker. They then drifted with the sea ice for a year (including the winter) to perform observations in the CAO, where multi-year ice remains. They were accompanied by a Russian icebreaker, which helped replenish supplies and rotate personnel. In addition, hands-on experience and training were planned for young researchers from around the world in the interest of international exchange and fostering learning and development, and the accompanying ship made a round trip to the observation area.
(3) Research plans for fisheries use and management of the CAO
The international waters spread out in the CAO. In 2018, to avoid unrestricted fishing activities in the CAO, a decision was made to suspend such fishing activities for the time being and conduct a preliminary study of the marine ecosystem, which took effect in 2021. A joint research plan will be prepared by 2023.1

■Figure 2: Trends in sea ice extent and future projections. From AMAP, "Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts. Summary for Policy-makers" and IPCC AR6 (2021).

The Future of Arctic Science

Changes in the natural environment of the Arctic Ocean have been investigated using advanced observation techniques, predicted using the latest computational techniques, and then reviewed by IPCC, AMAP, and other organizations. While constant research and technological developments have accumulated information and improved the accuracy of forecasts, it is still tough to predict international situations and political trends.
Regarding the Arctic science, scientific activities are a lifework for researchers. However, environmental monitoring transcends these lifetimes. And it is performed over vast areas and across national and regional boundaries. The 2014 Crimean Crisis caused operational difficulties at U.S. observation sites along the Russian coast. Many countries hoped that Japan's observation activities in the coastal areas of the Arctic could compensate for these difficulties. Japan did in fact commence observations in coastal areas after that and has accumulated valuable data until recently. In addition, to the north of the sea area where the Northern Sea Route passes along the Russian coast is the Nansen and Amundsen Basins Observational System (NABOS), where joint U.S.-Russian research and marine environmental monitoring have been conducted since 2002. Young researchers from around the world have been selected to participate in the joint research, including researchers from Japan.
Before the summer research season of 2022 comes, the Arctic Science Summit Week ASSW2022 was held in Tromsø, located in the Arctic in northern Norway at the end of March. Other international meetings such as the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) and the Arctic Observing Summit (AOS) were also held simultaneously. Topics of discussion included observation efforts amid COVID-19 and concerns about the impact of the situation in Ukraine on science. It was agreed that protecting the academic activities of individual researchers and maintaining their networks even in difficult international situations, as well as supporting educational opportunities and international exchanges so that they’re not compromised for students who will play a lead role in the future, would mean supporting science in the long run. Similar declarations of support for individual researchers and students have been advocated in several countries. However, as of yet, no concrete solutions have been developed. The scientific community continues debating what it can do in light of the current international situation. (End)

  1. 1Japan has started large-scale Arctic research projects since 2011, and the five-year Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II project (ArCS II) is currently underway since 2020.
  2. 2ArCS II has prepared a Japanese translation under the supervision of experts. It can be downloaded from the right-hand link. https://www.nipr.ac.jp/arcs2/outreach/2021-amap-spm-jp/
  3. 3Morishita, Joji. “Hokkyokukai to Hokkyoku Kyogikai no Yukue [The Arctic Ocean and the Direction of the Arctic Council].” Komonzu to shite no Umi [The Sea as a Commons], Nishinihon Publisher, 2022, pp. 194-208

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